Detecting unemployment hysteresis: a simultaneous unobserved components model with Markov switching
"We construct a new Markov-switching unobserved components framework for the analysis of hysteresis effects. Our model unifies the ingredients of trend-cycle decomposition, identification of spillovers between the components and asymmetry over the business cycle. Employing the model for Germany...
| Main Authors: | , |
|---|---|
| Institution: | ETUI-European Trade Union Institute |
| Format: | TEXT |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Nürnberg
2015
IAB |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.labourline.org/KENTIKA-19109360124919275429-Detecting-unemployment-hystere.htm |
| _version_ | 1771659900156379137 |
|---|---|
| author | Klinger, Sabine Weber, Enzo |
| author_facet | Klinger, Sabine Weber, Enzo |
| collection | Library items |
| description | "We construct a new Markov-switching unobserved components framework for the analysis of hysteresis effects. Our model unifies the ingredients of trend-cycle decomposition, identification of spillovers between the components and asymmetry over the business cycle. Employing the model for Germany and the U.S. over 55 years, we find that the decades-long upward trend in German unemployment is fully explained by hysteresis. The Great Recession was well absorbed because both hysteresis effects and structural unemployment were substantially reduced after institutional reforms. In contrast, U.S. unemployment did not evolve according to hysteresis, not even during the Great Recession." |
| format | TEXT |
| geographic | Germany USA |
| id | 19109360124919275429_57a2e968e1fa4788956802915af49c76 |
| institution | ETUI-European Trade Union Institute |
| is_hierarchy_id | 19109360124919275429_57a2e968e1fa4788956802915af49c76 |
| is_hierarchy_title | Detecting unemployment hysteresis: a simultaneous unobserved components model with Markov switching |
| language | English |
| physical | 17 p. Digital |
| publishDate | 2015 |
| publisher | Nürnberg IAB |
| spellingShingle | Klinger, Sabine Weber, Enzo business cycle comparison structural unemployment labour market policy Detecting unemployment hysteresis: a simultaneous unobserved components model with Markov switching |
| title | Detecting unemployment hysteresis: a simultaneous unobserved components model with Markov switching |
| topic | business cycle comparison structural unemployment labour market policy |
| url | https://www.labourline.org/KENTIKA-19109360124919275429-Detecting-unemployment-hystere.htm |