The determinants of macroeconomic forecasts and the Stability and Growth Pact

"This paper identifies the determinants of macroeconomic forecasts (budget balance, public debt and real GDP growth), of the governments of the 15 EU countries. We have used the forecasts of the Stability and Convergence Programmes submitted between 1998/99 and 2008/09 and the European Commissi...

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Main Authors: Martins, Patricia, Correia, Leonida
Institution:ETUI-European Trade Union Institute
Format: TEXT
Language:English
Published: Lisbon 2013
ISEG
Subjects:
Online Access:https://www.labourline.org/KENTIKA-19128026124919462089-The-determinants-of-macroecono.htm
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author Martins, Patricia
Correia, Leonida
author_facet Martins, Patricia
Correia, Leonida
collection Library items
description "This paper identifies the determinants of macroeconomic forecasts (budget balance, public debt and real GDP growth), of the governments of the 15 EU countries. We have used the forecasts of the Stability and Convergence Programmes submitted between 1998/99 and 2008/09 and the European Commission’s. Results show that, in general, economic growth forecasts submitted by European governments are more optimistic than those published by the European Commission. The lack of accuracy of government forecasts is due to “misinformation” regarding the economic situation at the time of their publication. The differences between observed and forecast changes of budget balance and public debt are explained by the output growth forecast errors and the forecasts of the changes in the two fiscal indicators. These forecast changes tend to revise downwards the changes submitted in the previous Program. Therefore, the governments’ “bad intention” seems to result from their lack of commitment to the objectives of previous programs and it explains the recurrent delays in the implementation of their fiscal consolidation plans."
format TEXT
id 19128026124919462089_55d55722f9264eb98a16066598e3f2d3
institution ETUI-European Trade Union Institute
is_hierarchy_id 19128026124919462089_55d55722f9264eb98a16066598e3f2d3
is_hierarchy_title The determinants of macroeconomic forecasts and the Stability and Growth Pact
language English
physical 15 p.
Digital
publishDate 2013
publisher Lisbon
ISEG
spellingShingle Martins, Patricia
Correia, Leonida
European Union
forecast
macroeconomics
Stability Pact
The determinants of macroeconomic forecasts and the Stability and Growth Pact
thumbnail https://www.labourline.org/Image_prev.jpg?Archive=100866892804
title The determinants of macroeconomic forecasts and the Stability and Growth Pact
topic European Union
forecast
macroeconomics
Stability Pact
url https://www.labourline.org/KENTIKA-19128026124919462089-The-determinants-of-macroecono.htm