How well do economists forecast recessions?
"We describe the evolution of forecasts in the run-up to recessions. The GDP forecasts cover 63 countries for the years 1992 to 2014. The main finding is that, while forecasters are generally aware that recession years will be different from other years, they miss the magnitude of the recession...
| Main Authors: | , , |
|---|---|
| Institution: | ETUI-European Trade Union Institute |
| Format: | TEXT |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Washington, DC
2018
IMF |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.labourline.org/KENTIKA-19301656124911298389-How-well-do-economists-forecas.htm |
| _version_ | 1771659897041059841 |
|---|---|
| author | An, Zidong Jalles, João Tovar Loungani, Prakash |
| author_facet | An, Zidong Jalles, João Tovar Loungani, Prakash |
| collection | Library items |
| description | "We describe the evolution of forecasts in the run-up to recessions. The GDP forecasts cover 63 countries for the years 1992 to 2014. The main finding is that, while forecasters are generally aware that recession years will be different from other years, they miss the magnitude of the recession by a wide margin until the year is almost over. Forecasts during non-recession years are revised slowly; in recession years, the pace of revision picks up but not sufficiently to avoid large forecast errors. Our second finding is that forecasts of the private sector and the official sector are virtually identical; thus, both are equally good at missing recessions. Strong booms are also missed, providing suggestive evidence for Nordhaus’ (1987) view that behavioral factors—the reluctance to absorb either good or bad news—play a role in the evolution of forecasts." |
| format | TEXT |
| id | 19301656124911298389_2da7b86d023a4e58bfdd69db3e60acf1 |
| institution | ETUI-European Trade Union Institute |
| is_hierarchy_id | 19301656124911298389_2da7b86d023a4e58bfdd69db3e60acf1 |
| is_hierarchy_title | How well do economists forecast recessions? |
| language | English |
| physical | 31 p. Digital |
| publishDate | 2018 |
| publisher | Washington, DC IMF |
| spellingShingle | An, Zidong Jalles, João Tovar Loungani, Prakash economic forecast economic recession How well do economists forecast recessions? |
| thumbnail | https://www.labourline.org/Image_prev.jpg?Archive=135924695310 |
| title | How well do economists forecast recessions? |
| topic | economic forecast economic recession |
| url | https://www.labourline.org/KENTIKA-19301656124911298389-How-well-do-economists-forecas.htm |